According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures based on swab tests data from up five days ago, COVID cases are declining in most areas of the UK as R value drops below 1 again to 0.9. 

Key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey this week: 

• There are currently 29,311 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 22 November (excluding care homes) 
• This compares to 34,279 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago
• The UK R value is around 0.9 
• Regional R values are: England, 0.9. Wales, 1.0. Scotland, 1.0  
• In Wales and Scotland the number of daily new cases has levelled off with R values of 1.0, but case numbers are back down to the same levels as the start of October
• Similarly, cases in the North West have recovered to the same levels as mid September and in the North East and Yorkshire cases are now comparable to early October
• For the first time, cases in the Midlands have fallen, with an R value of 0.9
• In London and East of England, cases remain stable with an R value of 1.0
• In the South West and South East as R value drops to 0.9 and cases have fallen since this time last week
• Age groups: Reassuringly, the number of cases in the over-60s is now either decreasing or stable in every region of the UK

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures are based on around one million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on data from 11,850 swab tests done between 8 to 22 November 2020. 

If you’d like to receive the full daily report for the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, head to: https://covid.joinzoe.com/your-contribution 

Tim Spector OBE, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments:

“I’m disappointed to see so many regions going into Tier 3 when the latest data suggests that symptomatic cases are continuing to fall. Our data shows that the UK R value is now below 1 at 0.9, mirroring ONS data, and probably reflects voluntary behaviour changes. Importantly, the NHS continues to cope even with the addition of winter pressure. These heavy restrictions may have greater costs to public health than benefits. We need to consider more carefully the wider physical, social and mental health implications of excessive mandatory restrictions if they are not justified by the recent data.”